Journalist Farida Kurbangalejeva from Republic.ru spoke with Preobrazhensky about what Russia is trying to do to question Lithuania's independence - and why it will be a test of NATO's strength.- Many have responded to the news about Fyodorov's initiative by saying that he is a well-known political "freak" and not worth paying attention to.Still, you don’t think so.Why?- Let's start with the fact that there are no random "French" in the Russian parliament - they were all selected and approved by the presidential apparatus.Evgeny Fyodorov is no longer sitting in the First Duma.He has repeatedly tabled radical bills that were initially rejected, or more precisely postponed, and then re-tabled and passed on behalf of other, more "solid" deputies.This has happened, for example, with the Foreign Agents Act.And this is not just the case with E. Fyodorov.There is a whole group of MEPs who are usually said to be 'French' and do not need to be taken seriously.In practice, however, such radical bills always return and are passed.Maybe in five or ten years.The presidential apparatus usually loses the subject, monitors the reaction, among other things, the reaction of the deputies themselves and the authorities, and decides how to proceed: what information campaign to run and so on.Such long-term planning has been in place for a long time, and only those who have not been observing the Duma's work for the past 20 years can talk about "Fricks."- If we assume that the initiative has been coordinated with the presidential administration, then why attack Lithuania?- Because there are preconditions for putting pressure.Lithuania has one very weak point in terms of military strategy - the so-called Suwalki corridor, which could hypothetically connect the territory of Belarus with the Kaliningrad region of Russia.As far as I know, the issue of security in the Kaliningrad region was one of the most strategically important when the Kremlin was discussing the future of Belarus and when the Kremlin gradually put more pressure on Aliaksandr Lukashenko and sought to deploy Russian troops in Belarus.There is a very sad historical analogy with the so-called Danzig Corridor - to Germany through Polish territory after the First World War.And the struggle for the free city of Danzig (Gdansk) became one of the main reasons for the outbreak of World War II and the invasion of Poland.When Russian anti-aircraft defense (PLG) systems were inflicted on Belarus before the invasion of Belarus, some military experts were surprised to ask: what is the point of deploying them a few kilometers from the border if, in the event of a military conflict with, say, Poland, enemy forces destroy them? ?The answer is very simple: these PLG systems, together with the PLG and missile systems transferred to Kaliningrad in recent years, completely cover the territory of Lithuania.And they can cover the airspace of the entire Suwalki corridor at any time.This will ensure an air corridor to Kaliningrad.It could be opened at any time under the pretext of protecting Russian citizens, and civil aviation covered by Russian PLG systems could be launched there.Will NATO and EU forces risk anything to do with civilian aircraft covered by the Russian PLG?That is, a very serious systemic trap arises here that Moscow could put pressure on the alliance.We got used to listening to the reasoning that "our MiGai will fly to Riga" and "how many hours a Russian special task force can occupy Estonia".However, the most dangerous situation is in Lithuania.All the more so because it is strategically useful to cut Estonia and Latvia off the EU by land and to deal with them even then.Russia has all the technical capabilities and sufficient humanitarian resources to do so.I am sure that such a possibility has already been discussed in the Kremlin and the Security Council.- That is, the draft law of E. Fyodorov - not public revenge for the money collected by Lithuanians for Bayraktar for the Ukrainian army and anti-Putin rhetoric?- This is revenge for the common position of Lithuania.But, of course, the classic Kremlin geopolitics, in which there is "nothing unnecessary", is simply the realization of imperialist appetites.- What will happen if NATO countries do not allow Russian planes to fly to Kaliningrad?- The Kremlin believes that there will be no full-fledged war with NATO.There, he knows that all decisions in the alliance are made by consensus, and in such a situation there may be enough countries to state that there is no basis for a military conflict with Russia.Russia is not carrying out any military strikes and is not occupying anything in NATO.It is simply demanding that the humanitarian interests of its citizens be protected.And countries like Hungary or Turkey will veto the military response to Russia's actions.NATO is not short of states that have no interest in a military conflict with Russia, even when it may be necessary.- Even given that Russia has already invaded Ukraine?- Of course.You see, Hungary is banning the transit of arms through its territory.The Hungarian Prime Minister has won the election with the slogan "We will not allow Hungary to be involved in the war".At the same time, Budapest continues to trade with Russia.Vetoed the Russian oil embargo, reached a postponement, so Hungary will be able to resell Russian oil.Russia is still involved in the construction of the NPP in Hungary.In Turkey, the construction of a NPP with Russia is also continuing.Turkey is acting as an active mediator between Russia and Ukraine in the supply of grain.At the same time, it proposes that Russia's interests be taken into account and that sanctions be partially lifted if any agreement is reached.Although Turkey has closed its straits to Russian warships, it does not completely stop their movement.It is also possible to talk about Turkey's contacts with Russia and Syria.Judging by everything, she canceled her military operation against the Syrian Kurds after negotiations.Until recently, Turkey damaged relations with the United States by stubbornly buying Russian PLG systems, despite protests from NATO partners.And where is Cyprus still economically closely linked to Russia.He vetoed a ban on Russians buying property in EU countries if they do not have a residence permit.And there is still Greece disagreeing with Turkey.Nevertheless, the Greeks rely more on Russia than on NATO in the event of a military conflict.That is, a number of NATO countries themselves can be relatively called Russian agents.And if things are not as obvious as they are now in Ukraine, that is, if there is no mass murder of the peaceful population and no direct military conflict, they will not want to go to war against Russia.- And yet it is hard to imagine that NATO will calmly monitor Russia's actual invasion of Lithuania.- In theory, they will not watch calmly.Here is the question of balance of power.Will Poland benefit from armaments?It will not be able to do so unless at least Lithuania itself does so.And will Lithuania engage in a direct military conflict?In words - of course, but practically no one checked it, because there was never anything like it.The Kremlin’s job is not to kidnap anyone.The aim is to show that NATO does not work as a defense structure.And the old NATO countries are not ready to immediately support the new small countries that are next to Russia.The Kremlin is expected to collapse like a house of cards and many countries such as Hungary or the Czech Republic (which has traditionally been cautious about any military initiative) will simply stop feeling safe - and start negotiating with Russia with no other choice.- That is, Russia's main goal - to weaken NATO?- Yes.After [Lithuania] was created a "hanging" status, which the Russian authorities used at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, when they declared that they did not recognize the Ukrainian president, the current Ukrainian government and the elections that followed Viktor Yanukovych's escape.And they annexed Crimea allegedly because at that time Ukraine, according to them, was not a state and temporarily lost control.Such an uncertain legal status allows for any aggressive actions, and that is what threatens Lithuania.What is Lithuania's non-recognition?This does not mean that the very fact of Lithuania's existence is not recognized.This is the non-recognition of the existing borders of the Lithuanian state, which is important for a full-fledged member of the world community.After that, Russia can start negotiations and offer Lithuania the opportunity to be recognized by Russia.And here the questions arise: under what conditions will it recognize Lithuania?What will she demand from Lithuania in exchange?Blackmail may begin: for example, recognition is possible if Lithuania guarantees the safe transit of Russian citizens to Kaliningrad and agrees that Russia controls this transit corridor.In fact, this process is less clear in relations with Estonia.The Estonian government does not in any way ratify the agreement on the border, which includes the recognition of the borders that formed within the USSR after the Second World War.Because from the point of view of the Estonian authorities, in this case the country loses part of the territories that were transferred to the Russian Federation within the Soviet Union.That is, there are unresolved territorial disputes between Russia and the Baltic states.- Can Lithuania become the second Ukraine?And not recognizing its borders - in preparation for a future invasion?- Well, the Lithuanian government says this in a practically open text.And they did not start talking about it now, not after this statement by [E. Fyodorov].The leadership of the Baltic states constantly emphasizes that Russia poses a military threat to them and that it does not trust Moscow's words.Especially after a new phase of aggression against Ukraine.The Baltic states have no doubt that if Russia succeeds in capturing Ukraine, other objects of military aggression will be Poland or the Baltic states.- However, this would inevitably be a direct military confrontation with NATO.- The question is whether NATO will remain as it is now - if it turns out that the alliance is unable to provide military assistance to one of its countries in the way it cannot now provide full assistance to Ukraine.Is NATO ready to take action if one bloc country is under military pressure but there is no military aggression?It is not necessary for Russia to launch a military invasion as soon as it hypothetically takes control of the airspace of the Suwalki corridor.This situation could continue for years as long as there are disputes over this corridor or any ideas about peacekeepers.All this will shake the legal status of Lithuania, the legal status of the European Union and the unity of NATO's military strategy.After all, when the USSR occupied the Baltic states [in 1940], they did not resist either - because they realized that no one would save them.It is this feeling that no one who opposes will give them military support, the Kremlin, wants to instill in the Alliance's partners in Europe.- And yet is World War III possible?- I think that if, firstly, Vladimir Putin and the people around him remain in Russian power, and secondly, Russia wins the war against Ukraine, a military conflict with one of the NATO countries will become practically inevitable.- And what is the version of the Kremlin's "victory over Ukraine"?The annexation of all of Donbass, as well as Kherson and part of Zaporizhia County?- No, of course, this will not mean a victory against Ukraine, but Russia is clearly not ready to limit itself to what it has already seized.And if there are enough resources - and there will be enough resources to fight it for at least another two years - Russia will continue to carry out military aggression against Ukraine and try to occupy new territories.Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, will be threatened.And the Russian attack will stop where it will be stopped.No need to give in to the illusion that the Russian army's attack will end with referendums in the occupied territories.- Will sanctions not exhaust Russian industry to such an extent that Russia will not be able to continue its military action?- Not so fast.In particular, Russia has accumulated a large number of weapons.Yes, Soviet technology is used, but this is normal during the war.The Ukrainian army is also heavily involved in Soviet and under-modernized armaments.Second, it is enough for Russia to overwhelm the opponent in numbers.This requires significant human resources, and Russia has them.Russia can supply its army with food and fuel without external partners.The necessary high-tech military industrial complex, which Russia is now banned from buying, as the examples of Korea and Iran show, can be smuggled in with the help of China and other smaller and more corrupt countries.In terms of resources, it is very expensive, not as easy as it used to be when Russia was preparing for this war.For example, since 2020, it has roughly doubled the number of modern missiles used to bomb Ukraine.Yes, let's say we can now make one rocket instead of three for the same price.However, the Russian economy will have enough reserves for at least another two years.The only variable now removed from this equation is the behavior of Russian society.It is he who can change this situation, although the Kremlin's calculations do not take it seriously.He is not being investigated by the Russian authorities at all.In this case, surprises can always occur.- Do you think Russian society has a resource that can stop the war?- This resource is already holding back Russia's military potential.The Kremlin, for example, cannot carry out a global mobilization and is forced to carry out a secret operation.Although in terms of the Soviet mobilization strategies relied on by the General Staff and the Kremlin, they had long since had to carry out the first open wave of mobilization.The issue of human resources is shrinking, but not completely disappearing.The same goes for the dissatisfaction of the population.It could grow very seriously by the end of this year.First of all, in the poorly supplied strata, who are already dissatisfied with what is happening now.Perhaps at least some of what we can call the middle class with reservations will finally join them.They seem to be the foundation for maintaining the ruling regime.Another thing is that these people are called to the middle class by their income and not by any other parameters.That is, these are police officers, judges, prosecutors, regional and municipal officials, all kinds of budget staff, such as school principals.There may also be serious dissatisfaction among them, as funding for army maintenance will inevitably lead to a reduction in spending for these populations.In addition, a massive rise in unemployment will become apparent by the end of this year.Now the government is holding him back by all means, but at some point, like in the 1990s, everything will fall apart.And it will be necessary to figure out how to provide thousands of people with some minimum wage.For example, to harmonize the production of dense tracks.And all this may come together at one point - at the end of this year or the beginning of the other - and seriously destabilize the situation in Russia.- What if NATO, contrary to the Kremlin's predictions, defends Lithuania and the other Baltic states?- I think it's more than likely.It is Putin and his immediate environment who are guided by their virtual geopolitical concepts.Now they say that Poland is allegedly trying to gain control of part of the territory of Ukraine.Anyone who analyzes Polish politics and statements by the country's leadership sees that this is not the case.Accordingly, Russia lives in its myths and can hardly assess the changes that have taken place in Poland.Or the change in Germany, which is rapidly remilitarizing and abandoning the guilt complex, demonstrating a willingness to use force.Europe is changing, but the Kremlin does not see much.The Russian government hopes that a relatively peaceful France will now become the European leader.After Britain withdrew from the EU, France remained the last country to have a nuclear weapon.But change is taking place in France as well, and it is not worth expecting it to calmly watch as Russia slowly moves into Europe.I think NATO's response will, of course, be from the United States, no less important.But the question is whether that response will be military.And here are some doubts.The situation is likely to be reminiscent of Cold War crises.That is, if Russia declares control of the Suwalki corridor, NATO countries close Lithuanian airspace, and any aircraft, military or civilian, is shot down or forced to land.And here the question is whether Russia is ready to risk using its PLG system, because its goal in this case is a little different: not to join the military conflict immediately, but to loosen NATO.If she doesn't use it, the whole plan will fall apart.- Given the poor state of the economy, will Russia be able to invade Lithuania?After all, at the same time it will continue the war in Ukraine.- Ukraine is a powerful country from a military point of view.It now turns out that her army is one of the largest and most powerful in Europe.Only four European countries can compete with Ukraine in military power: Poland, Germany, France and Great Britain.Lithuania is not among these countries.And despite the perception that Russia poses a serious threat, Lithuania does not have such a strong army capable of fighting Russia.Let us recall reports from American intelligence and analysts that the Ukrainian army will oppose the Russian army for a maximum of three days.However, these predictions were more due to the fact that the Russian army was not ready for war.The Russian army is now at war.And judging by what’s going on in Donbass, she’s slowly starting to develop a strategy that’s convenient for her to implement.Therefore, in theory, Russia can fight against Lithuania.Yes, Lithuania is part of NATO, but only if NATO starts military action immediately.Without military action in the early stages, NATO will cease to exist as a military political alliance.Then different actions and completely different coalitions are possible.Then we can imagine a situation where Lithuania, Great Britain and Poland oppose the Russian military invasion, supported by Germany.The war would be difficult, but Russia could do the same.Although not as an equal opponent.It’s hard to say it would be stronger in a situation like this.- NATO is unlikely to betray Lithuania if it becomes a test of the strength of the alliance.- I don't really believe that either.However, when the Kremlin developed similar strategies 10 to 12 years ago, this seemed a plausible scenario.Putin is pursuing this strategy by moving from one point to another, with minimal changes to his initial plans.The Kremlin has a poor understanding that Russia's military aggression has given NATO a second breath.On this subject, I always say that there should be a secret room at the Allied Headquarters in Europe where a golden monument to Vladimir Putin stands and NATO generals burn candles under it, in the hope that it will further increase their budgets.- Going back to E. Fyodorov's draft law and the Kremlin's intentions - is it worth preparing for Latvia and Estonia?- In terms of military strategy, it makes no sense for Russia to attack Latvia.The capture of Latvia does not yield anything, and Lithuania remains in one flank and Estonia in the other.There is no military benefit, and most importantly, it is a direct military conflict, while Lithuania is a hybrid history that can last for many years.Estonia is a very small country, the most economically successful of the Baltic countries, and this is its main advantage.This is the country from which you emigrate the least.If Lithuania remains post-Soviet somewhere, then Estonia is more modern, more dynamic, more digital.But geopolitically, it cannot pose any threat to Russia.In general, the location of all the Baltic countries in terms of military strategy is very bad.The only country with a land border with the rest of the European Union and, accordingly, NATO is Lithuania.There is a strong Polish army behind it and the German sea nearby.The territory of Lithuania is the largest and has the largest population here.And at the same time the least Russian-speaking.There were never as many Russian speakers in Lithuania as in Latvia, even in Soviet times.The only seriously Russian-speaking city is Vilnius.And this is largely due to the fact that those who spoke Polish during the Soviet era switched more to Russian than to Lithuanian.All the Baltic countries are constantly threatened.As I said, Estonia has not fully ratified the state border agreement.There are many Russian speakers in Latvia.So, Russia always has something to go to "defend".Now it all depends on the strategic planning of the Kremlin.And the Baltic countries themselves are well aware that they have no instruments against Russia.The only instrument is publicity and the help of NATO countries that they seek.- Can Moscow use tensions over its monument to Soviet soldiers in Latvia?- Of course.So in 2007 it was already in Estonia with the so-called bronze soldier.Then there was unrest, the Russian authorities sent "Nazis" there, and Russia was waging a cyber war against Estonia.It is important to understand that this was the case before Putin.Russia was destructive, interfering in the internal affairs of the Baltic states while Boris Yeltsin was still in power.And this is precisely what the Baltic language policy of the Baltic States is not always weighed against.They were well aware that Moscow was using the language issue as a political and even military argument.The continuation of the opposition at this point in history is, of course, inevitable.Russian schools will close again in Latvia, and there will be targeted protests.All this tension is good for Moscow.Equally deliberate pro-invasive forces are actively stimulating tensions over the monument in Riga.It must be understood that this monument began to cause controversy as soon as the design began.It is exactly where the monument to the soldiers who defended Latvia in the struggle for independence after the collapse of the Russian Empire was to be erected.And the square was to be named in honor of that victory, not the victory of the Soviet Union in World War II.Meanwhile, the official, deliberately chosen name of the monument reads as follows: "Monument to Soviet Army soldiers who liberated Soviet Latvia and Riga from German fascist kidnappers."There could be no liberation of Soviet Latvia in principle.Latvia was occupied by the Soviet army in 1940, then by the Germans, and then by the Soviets.Latvian politicians, civic activists and cultural figures have always viewed this monument negatively.Probably that is why Russia included this monument in the bilateral agreement as a monument-graveyard.Although it does not fall into this category.This document provides for the preservation of this monument.However, Latvia has now withdrawn from the treaty.So it is an imperial stone of discord that is necessary for Russia to be able to create a conflict at any time, or at least demonstrate the USSR's victory over Latvian statehood.- Can the issue of defense of the Baltic States and Lithuania in particular be discussed at the summit in Madrid at the end of June?- The issue of defense of Lithuania and the other two Baltic states, as well as the deployment of additional American forces in Poland, has been actively discussed for several years.The deliberations will therefore continue.But it is clear that the main topic is Russia's aggression against Ukraine.And the Lithuanian government is well aware that the most important thing is to help the Ukrainian armed forces.Their final victory and even just stubborn resistance is in itself a sufficient guarantee against Russia's invasion of Lithuania or neighboring countries.- By the way, immediately after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, former Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė stated that sanctions would not defeat Russia and called on NATO to join the war on the Ukrainian side.How do you think this can be taken into account?- NATO hopes not to do so for as long as possible.By the way, D. Grybauskaitė herself in Lithuania is considered to be quite pro-Russian, her reputation is similar to Angela Merkel.On the one hand, she is a politician who has consistently opposed Moscow in words, and on the other hand, she is allegedly involved in some subliminal business affairs with Russia.Nevertheless, she is an anti-Putin political figure, in this sense absolutely honest.I think she is right in believing that as long as Russia is as it is and successfully tackles Putin's tasks, a military conflict is really inevitable, whether Europeans want it or not.She wants to say: like it or not - you will still get a war alone.You will get either shame and war or just war.However, the European Union and NATO hope that Putin's regime will collapse before Putin is able to carry out such military aggression.And that they will weaken him so much that when the moment of war with NATO comes, he will no longer have the resources to continue the war, and he should understand that for himself.This is a strange position - because it is clear that Putin understands little.UAB Lrytas, Gedimino 12A, LT-01103, Vilnius.Companycode: 300781534 Registered in the Register of Enterprises of the Republic of Lithuania, register manager: State Enterprise Center of Registerslrytas.lt editorial news@lrytas.lt Reports about technical problems webmaster@lrytas.ltDownload the mobile lrytas.lt app